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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."